16 Mai VATM and DIALOG CONSULT present the 26th telecommunications market analysis for Germany
- Digital infrastructure expansion is being driven primarily by competitors, who are investing significantly more than Telekom.
- Gigabit-capable households in 2025: Over 86% of all private households/small and medium-sized enterprises will be reached by a gigabit-capable connection network.
- Fibre optic coverage in 2025 (homes passed): 24.8 million households/small and medium-sized enterprises will be connected to fibre optic networks.
- Fibre optic coverage in 2025 (Homes Connected): The fibre optic coverage rate will be 21.7% (9.9 million households) by the end of the year. Almost 62% of these will be provided by competitors.
- Fibre-optic contracts in 2025 (homes activated): Competitors have more than twice as many fibre-optic customers as Telekom. The take-up rate of competitors is 33.6% (Telekom: 15.9%).
- Strengthening of the former monopolist in the fixed-line and business customer market.
- Fibre optic forecast for 2030: In the optimistic scenario, just under 15 million FTTB/H connections (homes activated) will be in use by the end of 2030. DSL will remain the most widely used connection technology.
- Strong mobile networks: The 5G service covers almost all households and most of Germany.
- Data hunger unabated: The volume of data transported via fixed and mobile networks continues to rise.
- Development of digital services in the AI era: customer contact via service numbers is essential.
Cologne, 29 April 2025. In 2025, Germany’s digitalisation will continue to be driven primarily by competitors in the telecommunications market. The strong commitment of these companies is demonstrated by the latest figures from the 2025 market analysis by DIALOG CONSULT and VATM, which for the first time is based on the total market figures for the previous year and the first quarter of 2025, thus enabling a forecast for this year’s developments.
The competition provides almost 62% of fibre to the home connections and has more than twice as many fibre customers as Telekom. They continue to invest the most in infrastructure development in both fixed and mobile networks. In mobile, almost complete 5G coverage of households and the country has been achieved.
However, the study also reveals significant competitive distortions in the German telecommunications market. „We observe that Deutsche Telekom’s market dominance is increasing year by year,“ explains study director Andreas Walter, managing partner of the consulting firm DIALOG CONSULT GmbH. „For example, Deutsche Telekom is expanding its share of the retail broadband market. It generates more than 58% of revenues in the fixed-line market, and almost 70% of connections are realised on Telekom’s access networks. It is even gaining market share in DSL. At the same time, the FTTH platform is virtually unregulated, and demand-side operators cannot gain significant market share with Telekom’s FTTH connections,“ says Walter. Telekom has reacted late but clearly to its competitors‘ commitment to fibre roll-out, though mainly with the expansion of Homes Passed.
VATM Vice President Valentina Daiber: Digitisation must become a core political task. Action is needed, both politically and in terms of network expansion.
VATM Vice President Valentina Daiber emphasises that the market figures provide a deep insight into an industry that is driving Germany forward and laying the foundations for future growth and continued prosperity. „However, the telecommunications market is now more than ever at a turning point,“ Daiber stresses. „The forecasts and current conditions for truly nationwide fibre-optic coverage for citizens are far from ideal. There is no doubt that the transition from the old copper world to the fibre world will be rocky.“
Although Telekom has started to expand its fibre-optic network, it often does not yet serve citizens living on the street, but only builds homes passed. As a result, competitors can no longer operate in the areas passed by Telekom. Those affected are usually left with access to the outdated copper networks for an indefinite period.
„The new Federal Government and the new Bundestag must be clear: Homes Passed is not the way forward for a digital society,“ said Daiber. „Homes Connected or Homes Activated connections are crucial to provide people with the next level of infrastructure. These are the hard currencies that all market participants should invest in for digitalisation.“
Priority must be given to preparing for a pro-competitive migration from copper to fibre. Politicians and the Federal Network Agency are expected to come up with a workable plan that sets out the way forward in close consultation with the industry.
A re-monopolisation of the telecommunications market would be detrimental to the digitalisation of Germany. The Vice-President refers to the latest report by the renowned economist Prof. Achim Wambach PhD, President of the Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, entitled ‘Competition in the fixed-line market – a model for 2030’. In it, Wambach highlights the threat to fair competition posed by the strengthening of the former monopolist. „If a large part of the fibre optic network were to be in the hands of one dominant company, we would be facing a phase with the risk of rising prices for end customers, lower quality of service and declining willingness to innovate,“ explains Daiber. „The ZEW therefore recommends a regulatory framework for competition that accelerates the expansion of the infrastructure and ensures a level of competition that guarantees citizens a choice of providers and favourable price structures.“
The association expects the new federal government to make digitalisation one of its core political tasks. „The future Federal Minister for Digital Affairs, Dr Karsten Wildberger, faces great challenges. The new ministry will have to prove its ability to act quickly and implement measures,“ said Daiber. This applies to the rapid removal of bureaucratic obstacles and the rapid digitalisation of all administrative structures.
Another key issue is the necessary policy decisions regarding the mobile market. Germany is already very well positioned in terms of 5G coverage, both in households and throughout the country. However, people’s demand for fast mobile data exchange that is available everywhere will continue to grow. „Strong mobile networks are based on good coverage with sufficient frequency resources – this is something we will also have to discuss in the new legislative period, with regulation and policy – and with Germany having a strong voice in international bodies.“
In the coming weeks and months, it will be essential to ensure that the speeding up of approval and planning procedures goes beyond words. Above all, the recognition of the overriding public interest of telecommunications network infrastructure must be given the highest priority. A new legislative process must now be initiated and adopted by Parliament as soon as possible, and the overriding public interest in mobile and fixed communications must be recognised equally.
„Part of the frequently cited turning point in Germany must be the strengthening of digital infrastructures,“ the Vice President demands. „Strong infrastructures thrive on diversity – in terms of the technologies used, the large number of active providers and within an investment-friendly framework. We are counting on political declarations of intent to quickly become laws, and on laws to quickly become reality. Action is the order of the day, both politically and in terms of network roll-out. Digitisation cannot be delayed and must finally become the focus of political efforts.“
The telecommunications market in detail:
The German telecommunications market will grow slightly in 2024 to 60.8 billion euros in generated revenue. In the fixed-line network, Deutsche Telekom will increase its already high market share at the expense of its competitors (Fig. 1). The business customer market, which makes up a third of the total market, is especially important for Germany as a business location. With revenues of €14.2 billion, Telekom will have further expanded its long-standing dominant position in the business customer market in 2024 and will achieve a market share of almost 70% by the end of 2025. Competitors will again see a significant decline of 0.9 billion euros, or 11%, to 7.3 billion euros in 2024. A further decline of 6.8% to 6.8 billion euros is expected for 2025 (Fig. 2).
In 2024, almost 70% of all broadband connections were provided via Deutsche Telekom’s network (Fig. 8). With an end-customer market share of 40.6%, Deutsche Telekom recorded an increase of 200,000 new broadband customers in a generally stable market (Figs. 8 and 9).
In the DSL downstream market, which will continue to dominate in the medium term, Telekom is continuing to increase its market share – making it even more important for the German Federal Network Agency to issue pro-competitive specifications for the closure of the copper network (Fig. 12).
The number of connections capable of Gigabit speeds will increase to 39.6 million households by the end of 2025. Gigabit coverage will increase to more than 86%. 24.8 million households and small and medium-sized enterprises will be covered by fibre (Fig.13).
The fibre penetration rate (Homes Connected) will increase to 21.7% by the end of 2025, corresponding to around 10 million connected households. Almost 62% of these fibre connections will be offered by competitors (Fig. 14).
By the end of the year, 6.1 million households will have active FTTB/H connections, mostly through competitors in the market. Competitors provide many fibre-optic connections, with a take-up rate of 33.6% — more than twice that of Deutsche Telekom (15.9%) (Fig. 15).
A look at Telekom’s inadequately regulated FTTH and DSL platforms shows that the market-dominant company is continuing to expand its end-customer market share. Competitors are largely excluded from the FTTH platform (Fig. 16).
The forecast for the development of fibre connections (Homes Activated) by the end of 2030 shows that even in an optimistic scenario for fibre development (assuming an annual increase of 1.5 to 2.0 million new FTTB/H connections, Homes Activated), only just under 15 million fibre connections will be in use. DSL will remain the most widely used access technology until the end of 2030 (Fig. 17).
The rollout of 5G in the mobile communications market is well advanced. By the end of 2025, 5G will be available to more than 99% of all households and cover 95% of Germany’s territory (Fig. 23). Mobile network operators are continuously investing in connecting antenna sites with fibre optics. Microwave radio remains an important connection technology (Fig. 24).
With an expected increase of 14.4 million new SIM cards to a total of 215.6 million by the end of 2025, the mobile market will continue to grow (Fig. 19). In particular, the use of SIM cards for IT and machine networking will increase, reaching a share of 44% by the end of 2025. This represents an increase of more than 21% compared to 2024 (Fig. 20).
Germans‘ appetite for data continues to grow. By 2025, the amount of data used on fixed lines will rise to 154 billion gigabytes, an increase of around 7% to an average of 343 gigabytes per month and broadband connection. We see a similar trend in mobile traffic. With the total volume growing by almost 27% to more than 15 billion gigabytes, the average mobile data volume per user will increase to 11.7 gigabytes per month per active personal SIM card by the end of 2025 (Fig. 27).
Instant messaging via apps remains the most significant channel for exchanging personal data. By 2025, daily message volume in Germany is projected to reach 2,830 billion (Fig. 28).
In the area of digital services, even in the age of AI and chatbots, customer contact via service hotlines and service SMS messages remains essential. Revenue is stable at an expected €230 million by the end of 2025 (Fig. 3).
The 26th TK Market Analysis 2025 by DIALOG CONSULT and VATM is available on the VATM homepage via this link: TK-Marktanalyse.
Andreas Walter is the managing partner of the consulting firm DIALOG CONSULT GmbH and has been monitoring and analysing developments in the telecommunications market for more than 25 years. Walter holds a teaching position at Rhein-Main University of Applied Sciences.
Valentina Daiber, Vice President of VATM e.V., Head of Legal & Corporate Affairs at Telefónica Deutschland.
